Latest Analysis of Ongoing Israel War on Iran with Batool Subeiti

11 المشاهدات· 25/06/17

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London-based political commentator Batool Subeiti joins TMJ News for a special episode featuring the latest analysis of Israel's war on Iran. If you enjoy TMJ News content, please support our work here: ►https://www.gofundme.com/f/Empowertmj... Facebook ►: https://www.facebook.com/tmjnewsnetwork Instagram ►: https://www.instagram.com/tmjnewsnetwork/ Patreon ►: https://www.patreon.com/tmjnewsnetwork Tik Tok ►: https://www.tiktok.com/@tmjnewsnetwork?_t=ZP-8uDi4YA3iPO&_r=1 Podcast ► Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-current/id1782478753 ► Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1sq6995S3lAOcEMPuxRDQ8

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Transcript

[0:01][Music] Alam alaikum and welcome to another special live episode on TMJ's

[0:14]political current podcast.

[0:14]Today we are with you with a special segment with political commentator

[0:18]Batum Sueti who is based in the London area and today she's

[0:24]joining us to break down the latest on Israel's war on Iran.

[0:27]In today's round of attacks, Israel has targeted and attacked uh in

[0:31]the latest the studio of Iran's state television channel just a while

[0:35]ago.

[0:35]And this was while a reporter was on air.

[0:38]This was a live broadcast.

[0:40]Um the video went viral as the broadcaster was presenting and the

[0:44]attack happened.

[0:46]Um and the international community essentially has been witnessing Israel commit yet

[0:50]another illegal act of terror which is targeting journalists.

[0:55]something that they have done in in Gaza as well and we

[0:57]have seen extensively Israel as well on Gaza has killed about 232

[1:03]journalists so far and the entity continues its violation of international laws

[1:08]now in Iran as well.

[1:08]There's a lot to unpack there.

[1:10]The latest statement that we have from Iran's president.

[1:14]He says Iran did not start this war, but it will respond

[1:18]in proportion to the level of the attack, which is what we're

[1:21]seeing so far with several rounds of attacks happening on both sides.

[1:27]Uh, Batula is going to help me break down a lot of

[1:29]what we're seeing um at a time period when many are not

[1:32]only worried for their families, but also anticipating what to expect coming

[1:37]in the coming days and possibly weeks.

[1:38]Thank you so much, Batul, for joining me and um I hope

[1:42]to have a great conversation with you.

[1:43]Can you help us break down some of the latest of what

[1:46]we're seeing come out from Israel and Iran right now?

[1:50]What is the latest?

[1:51]Yes.

[1:51]Uh, absolutely.

[1:53]Um, in terms of the Iranian uh, barages and missiles on the

[1:56]Israeli occupation entity.

[1:58]Maybe I can start with that.

[2:00]Um, early this morning was the most unprecedented hits.

[2:03]You had around 100 ballistic missiles that are targeting really strategic areas.

[2:09]So, for example, you had uh strikes on power grid facilities.

[2:11]Um so you had widespread blackouts within the entity.

[2:14]You had the nap area, the negative.

[2:18]You had the Netherum air base was struck.

[2:19]Um and other installations where there's like severe censorship.

[2:22]That's where the demon nuclear facility is also placed.

[2:25]You also had an Israeli army camp that's targeted in the Galilee.

[2:29]Hifer's uh power station was also struck by a hypersonic missile.

[2:32]Uh so Iran is gradually uncovering and revealing uh the extent of

[2:38]its uh capabilities.

[2:40]for every 20 old missiles um it uses one of its um

[2:42]kind of high-tech precision uh missiles and you had the hyper refinery

[2:46]that was also struck.

[2:48]So really really sensitive and strategic areas within Israel are being struck

[2:54]on unprecedented levels.

[2:54]Um I don't think the Israeli occupation entity anticipated that Iran will

[2:59]go full force.

[3:01]Um especially if you know one considers the way that Iran responded

[3:04]to the operation true promises one and two.

[3:07]They were powerful but they were more limited uh in their scope.

[3:12]Um you mentioned the statement of um Peskan in terms of responding

[3:14]to the Israeli attacks.

[3:15]When we hear statements from the IRGC uh they say that you

[3:19]know Israel started this war but they won't be the ones to

[3:22]end it and that uh this war will continue until the end

[3:25]uh so to speak.

[3:26]So the expectation is that Israel will come running and uh begging

[3:32]for a ceasefire um at the end of this uh war because

[3:34]the hits are really uh unprecedented and ultimately this war is existential

[3:40]for Israel.

[3:41]I would class it as like Israel's last hope of survival.

[3:44]These are like the hits of an entity that's drowning and wants

[3:49]to save itself.

[3:49]Israel is not hitting within a strategy of building its existence.

[3:55]It's almost like fighting at a pace of life and death.

[3:58]And Iran knows and realizes that it needs to match that pace

[4:04]because uh Israel's ultimate goal is regime change.

[4:05]So, it's going to hit as hard as it possibly can on

[4:09]Iran to get the people on their knees in hopes that the

[4:11]people themselves um will uh rally against the government and um help

[4:18]them in achieving that goal and that objective.

[4:19]But the opposite is proving to be true.

[4:22]Right.

[4:23]And you mentioned ceasefire just just now.

[4:26]Do you think that we will be expecting a ceasefire coming soon

[4:29]or how long do you anticipate that these you know back and

[4:31]forths are going to continue?

[4:35]I think all of it depends on uh the extent to which

[4:37]Iran continues with its decisive hits.

[4:39]I think the harder Iran hits um the less likely this is

[4:45]to prolong and certainly not expand um because Israel is not built

[4:49]to sustain um such attacks.

[4:50]We're already hearing Israeli journalists come out and say and basically telling

[4:55]cats to shut his mouth basically and they're saying that you're just

[4:58]completely chit chatter buckering when you're saying that um you know tahan

[5:01]needs to pay a heavy price when we're the ones that are

[5:05]paying a heavy price when we have Israeli settlers that are uh

[5:07]you know under the under the rubble literally like the scenes that

[5:12]we saw in Ghaza we're now seeing within the occupation entity um

[5:15]it's you're seeing even bomb shelters um being um also targeted or

[5:20]within the collateral damage.

[5:21]These are the places where the settlers go when they fear and

[5:26]when they want to be safe.

[5:28]So the very concept of Israel as a safe haven um is

[5:34]ultimately being existentially uh challenged.

[5:37]Um this was a very reckless and suicidal move by Netanyahu.

[5:40]Um it's it's almost hard to believe how you could either be

[5:43]so stupid or to commit suicide.

[5:47]Um, and I think if they did anticipate such a response from

[5:49]Iran, as we've seen, and Iran's ability to a be very precise

[5:54]with its hits, B, the level of destruction that it's incurring, Iran

[5:57]has shown that it's got very strong precision.

[6:00]It can overcome layers of air defense, Iron Dome, David Sling, bad

[6:04]system.

[6:05]And also, Iran, as I've mentioned, is willing to go to the

[6:07]end.

[6:08]Um, so I think if Israel anticipated Iran would be that strong,

[6:11]they wouldn't have entered.

[6:13]But their comprehension of Iran's strategic patience and its limited strikes in

[6:16]operation true promise one two might have given them an impression that

[6:21]Iran would have restrained more.

[6:22]And of course they thought that by applying the same modus oparandi

[6:25]that they did in Lebanon by um targeting um you know key

[6:29]members within the frontline commanders that that would kind of paralyze uh

[6:35]the state and then they can go in full force and and

[6:37]target as and how they please.

[6:39]um they they thought they'd get essentially a limited response from um

[6:42]Iran and they assumed that first hit would paralyze it.

[6:45]Um but they failed in that.

[6:46]But I think also this is sending a very important signal to

[6:50]uh the United States of America because America right now is in

[6:53]a position where it is watching how things unfold.

[6:57]Uh it is almost using Israel in this situation as a collateral

[7:01]um to see the extent is basically testing the waters.

[7:07]If Iran's reaction uh is decisive um then this hit will severely

[7:11]weaken Israel and could change the whole political landscape.

[7:15]In that case the American support for Israel will shrink.

[7:17]But if Iran's response is weak, this gives the indication that the

[7:20]whole resistance access is weak.

[7:23]Israel would emerge stronger.

[7:24]And in that situation, you could even anticipate the United States of

[7:28]America getting involved if they felt like Iran was weak in their

[7:30]response.

[7:30]So over here you have Israel being used as collateral, which is

[7:33]an indication also of American shrinking support for the Israeli occupation entity.

[7:37]And I think we can rationalize America getting involved if it thought

[7:42]that its bases in the region and its real core interests in

[7:46]the region wouldn't be attacked.

[7:47]But as long as it thinks that that might happen and Iran

[7:50]has demonstrated that it's willing to go all of the way, um

[7:54]then put simply, the harder Iran hits, uh the more likely this

[7:57]confrontation will will come to an end.

[8:00]Right.

[8:00]And and I we're getting mixed signals, it seems, from from the

[8:05]Trump administration as well.

[8:05]There has been obviously lots of that back and forth, just changing

[8:08]up on their true intentions, not just in relation to what's going

[8:11]on right now, but also with the negotiations that were put on

[8:15]a pause because of what's happening right now.

[8:16]Um, we've seen them, you know, kind of shift their positions on

[8:20]Iran's nuclear enrichment and, you know, how much they want to, you

[8:24]know, allow versus not allow.

[8:25]Um, and we've seen that as well with, you know, once Israel

[8:28]struck.

[8:28]Just the the rhetoric that we're seeing come from Trump is very,

[8:32]I would say, um, it doesn't match, you know, what we're expecting

[8:35]to see from a president um that would not want his country

[8:38]to get involved because of the threat that it could pose to

[8:42]their own military bases in the region.

[8:44]What do you make of America's indecisiveness right now?

[8:47]they're kind of um pulling pushing back, not not wanting to get

[8:50]involved, kind of taking, like you said, that position of just watching

[8:53]everything unfold to see how serious the situation is going to get.

[8:57]But do you think if it does get serious enough and Israel

[8:59]um Israel's essentially existence gets to that, you know, point where they

[9:04]might actually completely be facing annihilation, America will probably get involved.

[9:09]Do you do you think that's the case?

[9:11]Yeah.

[9:12]So America as you've mentioned here greenlighting the attack is because as

[9:17]we mentioned America wants to measure the response of Iran and accordingly

[9:20]they will decide the shape of the future regional confrontations.

[9:24]Iran would want to see um sorry America would want to see

[9:29]the extent of the credibility of Iran and how it would respond.

[9:31]Testing that out.

[9:33]It's key to mention that Israel is the one that's bearing the

[9:36]brunt.

[9:37]America unless it decided that um if if if it was to

[9:41]involve itself directly, it would be if um it decided that um

[9:46]its military bases wouldn't be struck and wouldn't be set on fire.

[9:49]But that's not really uh the Trumpian approach.

[9:52]We know the Trumpian approach is one of MAGA is one of

[9:55]withdrawals um from its military bases in in in countries globally unless

[10:02]where he sees that uh there's a real American strength to have

[10:05]bases there.

[10:06]So whether that's, you know, Canada, we we hear his um approach

[10:09]to Greenland.

[10:10]Um Trump has a very strong business mindset.

[10:14]He actually wants the region of West Asia to be stabilized um

[10:17]in order to um pass those deals through um and so that

[10:23]it can be that kind of hub where America economically can uh

[10:25]gain leverage and strengthen itself internally, domestically.

[10:28]That's how it deals with the world.

[10:31]So America right now under Trump, may I add, because that's an

[10:34]important caveat, the way that Trump is kind of steering America in

[10:39]uh a direction where it wants actually less militarization on the outside.

[10:43]Um when I look at the Israeli occupation entities, someone like Trump

[10:47]has a propensity to recognize the real and true power balance on

[10:50]the ground.

[10:51]He likes dealing with the active and effective and strong forces, which

[10:54]is why he's not really an proponent of the American deep states

[10:59]uh version in which it wants to confront Russia and bleed Russia

[11:03]until the end via Ukraine.

[11:03]Trump doesn't take that uh kind of political uh approach.

[11:07]He he recognizes that for example, Russia is a strong entity on

[11:10]the ground.

[11:11]We need to deal with the strong entities.

[11:13]Uh likewise over here, Trump doesn't have much patient for failures and

[11:17]Israel in the past 20 months has proven to be a failure

[11:19]as far as uh strategic military objectives uh on the ground.

[11:25]America does not support the Israeli occupation entity um having a functional

[11:30]role of just committing genocide and massacring and killing.

[11:33]Maybe the Zionist entity sees that as an goal and an objective

[11:38]in and of itself, uh but the American establishment doesn't.

[11:41]They uh support Israel as a striking stick that can deliver blows

[11:45]to entities in the region that they want to weaken.

[11:49]Within that, their support for Israel is unconditional.

[11:51]So, yes, someone like Trump will give um Israel all the ammunition

[11:55]that it needs to basically prove itself.

[11:58]Do your thing.

[12:00]It green lit the um escalation on Lebanon last year.

[12:02]Let's see if you're capable of achieving the quote unquote new Middle

[12:05]East project.

[12:06]You know, if you manage to defeat the resistance in Lebanon and

[12:09]occupy Lebanon.

[12:10]Yeah, like we'll put you um as like the sheriff of the

[12:15]whole region.

[12:14]That's why Israel was created.

[12:15]It was created to play that functional role.

[12:17]Uh but what happens when you are a failure?

[12:19]What happens when you're unable?

[12:21]What happens when you actually become a liability in the sense that

[12:27]you you you are now a source of draining us because we

[12:29]are giving you we are supporting you unconditionally in this militarism but

[12:33]you are not achieving those goals on the ground.

[12:37]Um and so when it comes to Iran over here, uh America

[12:40]has not had that direct confrontation with Iran.

[12:43]It's not happened.

[12:43]A war with Iran hasn't happened in four decades.

[12:46]So really this is the battle.

[12:48]This is the battling ground and the testing ground right now.

[12:50]If Iran's reaction is decisive, um then Israel will be weakened here.

[12:56]We can expect to see American support for Israel to shrink postwar.

[13:01]But then if Iran's response is weak um then that indicates to

[13:05]America that the whole resistance access is weak and then that's where

[13:09]you might expect America becoming more emboldened to get involved.

[13:11]But as far as America's concerned if Iran is achieving precision strikes

[13:15]within the occupation entity in really strategic areas and it's leading to

[13:19]destruction that's not something that especially someone like Trump that's not not

[13:24]a state that he would want his own bases and his own

[13:28]assets in the region to be uh compromised.

[13:30]So right now, I mean, even if we look at some of

[13:33]the other kind of minor developments last week, like um the American

[13:37]stance against the resolution for a Palestinian state, America vetoed that or

[13:41]America standing against European sanctions on the likes of Benabro Smrich.

[13:45]These were a few days uh before we saw the Israeli um

[13:47]attack on Iran on Friday.

[13:50]This is ultimately America standing with Israel till the very end.

[13:54]From America's perspective, if Iran's response proves ineffective, Israel will have the

[13:58]upper hand.

[13:58]But if it's swift, if Iran is swift and decisive, then America's

[14:01]response to Israel will be, this is the ultimate Trumpian response.

[14:05]We gave you everything and stood by you politically and militarily.

[14:08]So, not just militarily, but also politically speaking, we vetoed the idea

[14:11]of a Palestinian state.

[14:14]Yet, you cannot fend for yourself.

[14:15]So, I don't think Trump, to answer your question, wants to get

[14:18]directly involved in wars.

[14:19]That's his nightmare scenario.

[14:20]As far as he's concerned, he's watching how this plays out.

[14:24]But the more Iran paralyzes Israel, the more America will shrink its

[14:28]support for Israel post war.

[14:29]Absolutely.

[14:30]And and you mentioned obviously how America is assessing the way in

[14:34]which Iran is, you know, handling the situation.

[14:36]And you know, you mentioned precision strikes.

[14:38]We know for example that Iran's ballistic missile program is the largest

[14:42]in the Middle East and that is one of their greatest strengths.

[14:44]They are the second largest military in the Middle East itself.

[14:49]over 610,000 active military personnel, reserve army of 350,000 and they have

[14:56]a homegrown defense system uh defense industry basically which has astronomically grown

[15:01]as a result of the sanctions because they now have to rely

[15:05]on their own kind of expertise.

[15:06]So given all these capabilities and what we are seeing of Iran's

[15:09]response right now, the question is do you think that these strikes

[15:15]that Iran is receiving from Israel will in any way succeed in

[15:19]dismantling and if not weakening their capabilities?

[15:22]Uh yes, absolutely.

[15:25]You've mentioned the strength of um Iran's weaponry and defense.

[15:30]Israel also has superiority when it comes to air um capabilities and

[15:35]also intelligence.

[15:37]Um that's where it reigns supreme.

[15:40]But if we consider the capabilities overall, so geographically speaking um you

[15:47]know Iran is made of 13 uh provinces.

[15:50]It's got an area of 1.5 million square kilometers.

[15:56]you can fit 60 1948 historic Palestines into um Iran.

[16:02]Demographically speaking, it's a population of 90 million.

[16:06]Um Iran has a strong general influence over the region.

[16:09]Iran has a high tolerance and experience and difficulties sanctions for the

[16:17]past four decades, but also war.

[16:17]You know, Iran experienced an 8-year brutal war when they had no

[16:23]capabilities, may I add, and they were also besieged by the world.

[16:29]And Iran has the ability to manufacture.

[16:32]And this manufacturing and this development of the capabilities is a very

[16:38]rapid reality.

[16:37]And that continues also during the war.

[16:40]Iran's power overweighs that of the Israeli occupation entities.

[16:45]Yes, Israel might be able to hold aspects of the Iranian nuclear

[16:48]program, even big and important chunks uh through these strikes, but it

[16:53]doesn't take away the human resources and the capabilities and the knowledge

[16:57]that exists even despite the high-profile assassinations that we're seeing.

[17:01]For example, six nuclear scientists.

[17:03]So, most of those occur through um collaborators within Iran um who

[17:08]collaborate with Mossad and plant bombs within the cars.

[17:11]Um but in the same way that the Islamic Republic has developed

[17:14]uh all its defenses um it is unable to um Israel is

[17:19]unable to finish these capabilities and deal a blow to them because

[17:22]the capabilities within Iran are not exported.

[17:25]Iran does not depend on the outside.

[17:27]There's no strings attached.

[17:29]Iran is self-sufficient.

[17:29]Iran has adapted to besiegment and in the very worst conditions it

[17:35]has developed.

[17:36]So Iran will continue to develop and especially with what we've seen

[17:40]with these very strong hits, it has a strong prestige now.

[17:43]It's almost like Iran has become the object of admiration uh globally

[17:49]and after America sees the extent of these precise hits.

[17:52]Um they will fear for their own assets and their own bases.

[17:57]So yeah, Iran is a very large country with ample resources, a

[18:00]country that's used to sanctions.

[18:02]So it's difficult to besiege and throughout this war Iran has been

[18:06]managing the use of its military capabilities in an effective way and

[18:10]it's still manufacturing them and it is of my belief that Iran

[18:16]can keep a war at this pace for years because in reality

[18:19]Israel and America don't understand the extent of Iran's capabilities.

[18:24]there's a lot that they haven't uncovered.

[18:27]You know, despite any of the uh intelligence penetrations that might exist

[18:31]or or what Iran has, you know, said out loud in terms

[18:34]of cap of its capabilities, Iran has been preparing for this kind

[18:38]of war for years because ultimately Israel has been beating the drums

[18:41]of war for years against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

[18:43]So, this always has been a possibility.

[18:45]Yes, Iran was caught off guard on Friday because America especially uh

[18:50]those at the negotiating table, Wickoff and and and Trump himself um

[18:55]you know played a kind of deception or trickery by um you

[18:58]know inviting Iran back onto the negotiating table on Sunday um precisely

[19:03]to catch it off guard which allowed Israel to you know assassinate

[19:07]those uh top commanders and those in the front lines of the

[19:10]IRGC and the armed forces.

[19:11]Um that was yes Iran being caught off guard.

[19:14]Um but that did not disrupt if you will the command and

[19:20]the and the control centers.

[19:21]Within an hour of the announcement of the assassination um that were

[19:26]taking place appointed a new uh chief of staff and a new

[19:33]um commander of the IRGC who heads it.

[19:34]Um so Iran is still very much in control and you have

[19:36]a people, this is an important point, a people who are willing

[19:40]to pay the price.

[19:40]Um this is the complete opposite to the Israeli occupation entity where

[19:46]um Netanyahu is becoming the object of disdain because he is the

[19:50]reason that um Israel is achieving those failures.

[19:52]Israel is supposed to be a safe haven.

[19:54]There are supposed to be no Iranian missiles that can intercept the

[19:59]Iron Dome.

[19:58]I mean why do these layers of air defenses exist?

[20:01]Um if those can be intercepted, then Israel is no longer safe.

[20:04]Israel is no longer a safe haven for these settlers and that's

[20:09]the only reason that they are there.

[20:11]So if they cannot guarantee their safety, best believe they will flee.

[20:15]And then you're talking about so so it's not even about the

[20:18]ability to cause mass destruction.

[20:20]It is making the settlers feel like they are no longer safe.

[20:25]That is really the existential threat to Israel.

[20:28]And I remember in one of Hassan's speeches he said that the

[20:30]way that I assume the liberation of Palestine will happen is not

[20:34]through for example just you know like missiles raining down or or

[20:39]you have a kind of infiltration on the ground that occurs.

[20:41]It will be through the settlers just packing their bags and leaving

[20:44]because um they feel unsafe and they cannot bear the brunt of

[20:50]war.

[20:51]It's a society that was not built for that.

[21:14]Uh, sorry, I are you there?

[21:17]I can't hear you.

[21:19]I think you might be on mute.

[21:23]Yeah.

[21:21]Yeah.

[21:22]I guess the the the second part of the conversation that I

[21:25]want to bring in, I know you mentioned that if Iran were

[21:27]to continue at this pace that they would be able to continue

[21:31]for several years.

[21:31]I think one other kind of dimension to bring into the conversation

[21:34]as well is something that a lot of Western outlets are saying

[21:37]um and we know as well is true is this idea that

[21:39]Iran has a lot of MSAD infiltration as well within the country

[21:44]and that is also contributing to some of what we're seeing come

[21:47]out of the the nation in terms of the the kind of

[21:50]attacks that are happening.

[21:50]A lot of outlets are dubbing it kind of as like this

[21:54]idea that Iran has become a playground for the MSAD because of

[21:56]you know the level of infiltration that's been happening not just now

[21:58]but we know this has been the case for the past several

[22:02]decades as well.

[22:01]But what's what's your take on you know how much of an

[22:05]influence this will have in particular?

[22:06]So we obviously have Israel that's attacking but we also have internally

[22:09]that infiltration.

[22:11]How much do you think that's going to end up affecting Iran?

[22:14]Yeah.

[22:15]Yeah.

[22:16]So Israel has accumulated its penetrations within Iran.

[22:19]I mean it sees Iran as the foremost enemy and the largest

[22:22]in size.

[22:23]So that's that's well known like that's a well-known fact and there

[22:27]are obviously opposition groups within Iran that have been operating for decades

[22:30]and decades.

[22:32]The MEK are the most um known group and they've been committing

[22:35]assassinations of the highest order ever since the beginning of the days

[22:40]of the um Islamic revolution.

[22:43]Um so for example you had like that half dete bombing where

[22:45]you had 80 uh top you know individuals and you know commanders

[22:51]of of uh different calibers that were completely assassinated.

[22:53]Um so there are those opposition groups within Iran and penetration exists

[22:57]um on all intelligent levels breadth and depth and they are organized.

[23:02]So we have seen for example and yesterday it was breaking news

[23:07]that you know trucks packed with suicide drones were intercepted in tunnels

[23:13]in Tahan and 200 km for example you have sorry 200 kg

[23:16]of explosives you had like 23 drones you had launch platforms that

[23:19]were detected the penetration ultimately in Iran has turned from like individual

[23:24]efforts into this kind of web but I think with such an

[23:29]expansive country uh this is limited in terms of jeopardizing um the

[23:33]outcomes of the war.

[23:35]I think the most important aspect of what we're seeing in this

[23:39]war right now is the um ability for the Iranian nation to

[23:46]remain steadfast um in the face of the heightened and brazen aggression

[23:52]and to be able to absorb the um natural bodily discomfort of

[23:57]um you know living in unsafety and and and having your homes

[24:01]demolished for example.

[24:03]um in the same way that we apply that logic to Gaza

[24:06]like the Palestinian struggle and cause remains alive today because the people

[24:10]of Gaza are able to endure and the Israeli occupation entity is

[24:17]crumbling uh because its people um are unable to withstand or pay

[24:19]the price which is why you'd see for example someone like Netanyahu

[24:21]come out and speak to the settler population in a way where

[24:25]he's convincing them that if we want Israel to continue surviving then

[24:28]you need to pay the cost of war.

[24:31]He's almost trying to toughen the society up.

[24:33]Um but I think the the the brazen and the screaming aggression

[24:36]that we're seeing in the Islamic Republic of Iran today is strengthening

[24:40]those nationalist uh strings.

[24:41]So you have the people of Iran that are even supporting the

[24:46]um you know execution of these collaborators which is happening.

[24:50]um even those who are against the uh government and don't agree

[24:54]with it are supporting um the line that the Islamic Republic is

[25:00]taking today in fighting the Israeli aggression.

[25:02]Um Israelis think that they can you know appeal directly to the

[25:06]Iranians in Iran, right?

[25:08]The ones who actually count as far as the system of the

[25:10]Islamic Republic is concerned.

[25:13]Um but if Iranians thought about turning against their government, they might

[25:15]just change their mind when the moment Israel opens its mouth.

[25:20]So the majority of the nation in Iran are against the Israeli

[25:22]aggressions and as I mentioned, Iran has become this object of admiration

[25:26]globally.

[25:27]So Israel's intention in turning people against the government through creating the

[25:31]most unbearable conditions through these strikes is having the opposite effect.

[25:34]And um the people are all coming together, people of all kinds

[25:42]and backgrounds.

[25:39]So as far as the Mossad playground is concerned, that's a reality

[25:46]that exists obviously.

[25:49]But in terms of the space that it occupies um in terms

[25:52]of affecting the outcomes uh of this war, Iran is closing those

[25:56]penetration gaps and is is hatching out these plots and the Iranian

[26:03]nation is strong and is resilient and is able to bear the

[26:06]brunt of those attacks and is actually calling like we like we

[26:12]saw the protests erupting in Iran, not against the government but calling

[26:16]the government and calling the armed forces and the IRGC to strike

[26:19]harder.

[26:20]Those were the scenes that we were seeing in Tan.

[26:21]Those were the scenes that we were seeing in and uh other

[26:25]cities as well.

[26:25]So I would argue that that's the most important component of any

[26:31]war.

[26:32]It's the morale of the people and that explains why um you

[26:35]know members of the Israeli occupation entity like Napali Bennett, like Netanyahu,

[26:39]they come out and they directly speak to the public of Iran

[26:42]because that's the ultimate goal, right?

[26:43]The ultimate goal is to topple the Islamic Republic.

[26:47]Is to create the most unbearable conditions through war to turn the

[26:51]people uh against the Islamic Republic and to have a kind of

[26:55]destabilizing effect on the military apparatus, but also I would argue through

[27:01]um the collaborators to kind of put a distrust between the Iranians

[27:09]and the system and the security apparatus.

[27:10]It's like it wants the people to feel like they're unsafe basically

[27:14]and that um their government isn't strong enough to uh hatch out

[27:17]these plans in the same way that you had the Israelis coming

[27:22]out after October the 7th saying um that we're not safe um

[27:25]and that this is Netanyahu's failures and having a real problem with

[27:29]the system.

[27:31]And we saw those mass protests that erupted against um uh Netanyahu

[27:34]within the entity.

[27:35]They're trying to create a similar effect um within Iran.

[27:39]But the Iranians are really smart people and they won't fall for

[27:41]it.

[27:42]Absolutely.

[27:42]And we're And the irony of all this, as you mentioned, you

[27:45]know, the Israeli officials appealing to the Iranian people, which is something

[27:48]they've done uh previously as well with the Mahas Amini uh protests.

[27:52]I remember very clearly when um people were essentially being fed all

[27:57]of the, you know, propaganda coming from external outlets trying to push

[28:03]them.

[28:02]You know, people go in the streets, do this and that.

[28:05]We're seeing that theme repeat itself every time something like this happens.

[28:09]And the irony here is, you know, seeing officials, Israeli officials, um,

[28:13]for example, on one side, Israel bombs residential buildings in Iran, and

[28:17]on another side, they're like, "We're with the Iranian people.

[28:21]You know, we support you." So, it's obviously, especially when it comes

[28:25]to acts of war, you usually see people of a nation start

[28:26]uniting.

[28:27]And this is something that we have seen with the Iranians as

[28:29]well, where a lot of public opinion that we're seeing come out

[28:34]from Iranians on social media is we a lot of us may

[28:35]have issues with our own government, but when it comes to an

[28:38]external entity threatening our very existence, we're all united.

[28:43]And that's the sentiment that we're overwhelmingly seeing from the Iranians, especially

[28:47]looking at their statements coming out from social media where they are

[28:52]under the distress of these attacks.

[28:54]But their their main kind of um their priority right now is

[28:57]is my neighbor safe is, you know, are my people good?

[29:00]That's, you know, something that we've seen come out with with war.

[29:03]And the ripples of the kind of echoes of this come from

[29:07]the 8-year war with Iran as well where, you know, Iran was

[29:09]fighting Iraq and we saw sentiments of just like people coming together

[29:12]despite whatever differences and saying, "Hey, this is the time to unite

[29:15]and this is about, you know, my my neighbor and my people."

[29:20]And so that's something that I think I want to discuss as

[29:22]well.

[29:23]Are we seeing similar public sentiments come out from Israel or given

[29:26]the protests that we've seen against Netanyahu and how extensive they have

[29:30]been, how are people viewing their own leadership right now?

[29:35]Absolutely.

[29:36]Um there was a very funny statement that was made by an

[29:39]Israeli journalist.

[29:40]Um I think I said it in the beginning of this where

[29:41]he said, you know, Katz has just become a complete chatterbox.

[29:46]Like we are paying the brunt um of this war.

[29:48]We don't care about Iran paying a price.

[29:49]Quite frankly, as long as we're not safe and as long as

[29:53]we're bearing the brunt, we do not care about this political agenda

[29:56]of making Iran pay a price.

[29:59]We just don't want missiles to rain on our head.

[30:00]And you as a state is supposed to protect us.

[30:03]Uh for the first time ever, Israel is under this kind of

[30:07]fire.

[30:07]And the reverberations of it is even worse than the actual military

[30:12]destruction caused because as mentioned the whole concept of Israel as a

[30:16]secure haven is completely shattered.

[30:17]So a it's not a secure entity.

[30:19]B it also cannot defeat its enemies.

[30:22]So and that's the cornerstone of what Israel is built on.

[30:25]If we think of Israel, it's um a hub.

[30:30]A it's a military base that's turned into a country.

[30:31]So it needs to house and secure people who feel safe.

[30:34]Um, and if and they're coming ultimately to a land of milk

[30:37]and honey and if it's not going to be like that, if

[30:40]they're not going to be able to feel safe in their beach

[30:42]parties, then they're going to want to leave.

[30:45]But also, it's um it's a military base turned into a country

[30:50]that they've normalized and stabilized uh as far as the world is

[30:53]concerned in terms of um you know, investments, in terms of technology,

[30:56]in terms of setting up its uh companies that import and export

[31:01]worldwide.

[31:01]Now you're talking about an entity where um it's the Angorian airport

[31:07]was shot indefinitely.

[31:08]You had the hyper port yesterday that was struck.

[31:10]I mean, Israel is in a state where ultimately it's becoming more

[31:14]besieged by the day and it's lacking that sense of security, which

[31:20]means that the global confidence and trust in this entity is also

[31:23]diminishing and that has uh an opposite effect uh on the people

[31:27]as well when they feel the outside world um is now no

[31:33]longer kind of trusting them in terms of them.

[31:36]The mass populations hate them obviously because they're seeing what the Israeli

[31:39]occupation entity has committed in terms of a genocide and they realize

[31:44]the reality of the settler colonial entity that cannot exist without a

[31:48]bunch of settlers.

[31:47]Um and also what this reflects in terms of uh America who's

[31:54]Israel's guarantor and Israel cannot breathe without the American oxygen ultimately the

[31:57]failures of Israel and this is all America cares about.

[32:00]America's like you can kill as many people as you want just

[32:02]achieve what you're supposed to achieve on the ground.

[32:04]If all you're doing is killing and the whole world is hating

[32:06]you and you're breaking all of these international laws and you've become

[32:11]a pariah entity and you're a failure on the ground and you

[32:15]cannot even capture 350 km of this means that even all the

[32:17]substitutions that um Israel and America even America has for Israel and

[32:23]its projected role regionally all of that will fall once Israel proves

[32:28]that it cannot take on any of the resistance fronts which is

[32:31]why it's almost bewildering the stupidity of thinking that you can even

[32:35]have a shot with Iran.

[32:36]The way I see it is that this man Netanyahu, ultimately Israel's

[32:42]become hostage to Netanyahu and he's leading it towards its own demise.

[32:46]Um because we're talking about the real Al Axa flood beginning here.

[32:51]Israel has lost all its excuses for legitimacy on every level.

[32:56]Even as far as America's concerned, it's a failure.

[32:58]It's breaking every international law.

[33:00]It's hated by the world.

[33:00]And so the demise of Israel will even reach the point where

[33:05]it it will become a need for the world itself.

[33:08]And ultimately the regional power that prevails against all of these threats

[33:12]on the ground, it will prove itself.

[33:14]So Israel's failure in paralyzing Iran and I believe Iran is much

[33:18]bigger than to be paralyzed by Israel.

[33:19]Iran that is this beating heart of the resistance.

[33:25]This will lead to a kind of increasing of the influence and

[33:27]the power of the resistance and consolidating uh Israel's failures that will

[33:32]become its core attributes.

[33:32]And if we remember someone like Trump is a man that likes

[33:36]to deal with the facts and the and the realities on the

[33:39]ground.

[33:39]So, I wouldn't even be surprised if post-war Trump would seriously want

[33:44]to negotiate with Iran and find a way moving forward with Israel

[33:48]becoming increasingly sidelined because Israel ultimately will become that burden in the

[33:53]sense that if we look at the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel

[33:56]will forever be that red line.

[33:59]Like Iran can sit down on a on a negotiating table with

[34:01]the the United States of America, it will never do that with

[34:05]Israel.

[34:06]Not directly, not indirectly in any way.

[34:06]It's like this occupation, we need to reverse the biggest shame of

[34:11]1948.

[34:10]That's Iran's ultimate stance towards Israel, which is what makes someone like

[34:14]Netanyahu come out and says the biggest threat to Israel is number

[34:19]one Iran, number two, Iran, and um number three, Iran, right?

[34:22]And and I want to uh kind of add a few more

[34:25]I guess chess pieces to to this conversation and that is, you

[34:29]know, we're talking about Israel and Iran and obviously we know um

[34:33]Israel, for example, has asked that the US joins in its benefit.

[34:36]One question that also arises is Iran and the support it will

[34:40]have or not have in the region.

[34:44]For example, one devastating reality that we have seen is we have

[34:48]a lot of these Arab Gulf countries being very quiet um kind

[34:50]of you know throwing a statement here and there but we know

[34:55]in the background their allegiance lies with America and unfortunately Israel as

[34:59]well given their dealings behind the scene as well as very openly

[35:02]now.

[35:02]So if it comes to it, which which countries do you think

[35:07]uh would be in support of Iran that would offer Iran that

[35:10]military support even?

[35:11]Um because we're seeing a lot of hypocrisy coming from a lot

[35:15]of Arab nations that unfortunately are even you know you know closing

[35:18]their a airspaces to Iran but completely open for Israel or you

[35:21]know Syria is its own story just like having Israel refueling on

[35:26]its land.

[35:25]So, a lot of what we're seeing right now is just this

[35:30]massive hypocrisy and complicity in action coming out from a lot of

[35:34]these, you know, Gulf states, Arab nations.

[35:35]Um, there are a few that we know have been uh with

[35:40]Iran, especially when it comes to the stance on Palestine.

[35:43]Which countries do you think Iran could rely on potentially if this

[35:46]war extends to a point where other militaries as well have to

[35:51]get involved?

[35:50]Yeah, I don't think any nation and it's important to mention nation

[35:55]because of course Iran supports paramilitaries on the ground.

[35:57]So when we talk about the resistance in other countries um they're

[36:00]not per se governments although of course you have the law but

[36:05]they're not recognized in the international community right whatever that means as

[36:08]the default government of Yemen.

[36:11]So if we just put Yemen on the side and the question

[36:13]of the insah because obviously they're default supporters um I don't think

[36:17]any nation will back Iran directly and openly especially given that the

[36:22]mechanism of secondary sanctions exists against the Islamic Republic which means by

[36:27]default any country that wants to support Iran will be even more

[36:32]more sanctioned.

[36:32]Of course, if we want to talk about friendly states, um, China

[36:36]is a friendly state, Russia is a friendly state.

[36:37]Both of them have come out.

[36:40]Very, very strong countries.

[36:41]We're talking about sup superpowers here.

[36:44]Have come out and said Iran has ultimately the absolute right to

[36:48]self-defense.

[36:49]And that's the way that they put it.

[36:51]And uh Pakistan is also a country that can help especially when

[36:53]it comes to let's say planes if Iran needs uh any uh

[37:00]support in terms of you know those conventional technologies.

[37:02]Of course Iran's method of warfare is I would say more unconventional.

[37:10]It's more efficient.

[37:11]Iran's way of uh developing and producing has been focused more on

[37:16]defensive rather than offensive uh historically speaking because Iran has never been

[37:23]an initiator of war but it's always been trying to deter and

[37:27]um this extends to the air, the land, the sea.

[37:28]Uh China cares about Iran not uh losing its power and its

[37:36]strategic influence in the region against an enemy state that is common.

[37:40]So America is a common enemy state to both uh China and

[37:46]uh Iran.

[37:47]So China cares about Iran maintaining its strength as does Russia um

[37:51]who has had strong relations with Iran for the past uh 15

[37:54]years.

[37:55]So you can expect that those countries um in a more indirect

[37:58]fashion will come to Iran's support even militarily speaking.

[38:03]Uh Ilam was a country that supported Russia uh throughout its war

[38:07]in Ukraine by supplying cheap and very effective drones which were important

[38:12]for that confrontation.

[38:12]Russia is a country that specializes in the more heavy weaponry, the

[38:17]conventional weaponry.

[38:19]So that's potentially where it can support Iran, but I think that

[38:23]would be something that would be less um but directly said out

[38:25]loud.

[38:26]As far as the Arab regimes are concerned, I mean the Persian

[38:32]Gulf States completely are hostage to American commands.

[38:33]If you want to see the extent to which an Arab regime

[38:38]is hostage, you just look at how rich it is.

[38:39]The more rich it is, the more hostage it is.

[38:42]It's completely bound to America.

[38:43]And it feels that America is a source of protection for it.

[38:49]Um, and it doesn't like a strong Iran.

[38:53]So those countries, we've seen the results of them in terms of

[38:58]um the interception of the Iranian missiles and drones that were going

[39:03]through completely allowing um Israeli missiles to go through their airspace and

[39:08]also housing, you know, American military bases like uh Qatar, for example.

[39:14]So, uh, yeah, what we're seeing is not just, um, convenient silence

[39:21]from the Arab regimes and the hypocrisy, but working with, uh, Israel

[39:26]and the US under the table.

[39:29]Of course, these aren't things that they would directly announce because they

[39:33]know that if they were to announce these realities, then the nations

[39:37]will turn on them or at least it will stir the heat

[39:39]against them.

[39:40]and they're trying to maintain their stability as far as they're concerned,

[39:44]right?

[39:45]And and to kind of close this conversation, one one last question

[39:48]I have and this is about, you know, that last resort conversation

[39:51]that we know is also out there.

[39:55]One kind of um you know, theory, which which we know could

[39:58]also very well become a reality is the Samson option, which is

[40:00]essentially Israel's, you know, last resort deterrent strategy of like massive nuclear

[40:06]retaliation.

[40:06]And you know this this report has not been verified but it's

[40:10]something um that has come out in social media that are images

[40:13]reportedly reportedly leaked by Iran that claim to expose Israel's Samson option

[40:18]nuclear target list and on the report that they're claiming has been

[40:22]leaked the cities that are mentioned there include uh Washington DC, New

[40:28]York City, LA, Colorado as well as other you know cities in

[40:30]in the UK in uh Europe including Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Moscow.

[40:34]um do you think the Samson option uh is is a possibility

[40:41]and what do you think would ever get it to a point

[40:43]where that could even be something um that could happen?

[40:46]No, I I don't quite frankly think the Samsung option is a

[40:50]possibility.

[40:50]Um I think we need to understand the reality of the strength

[40:54]of the Israeli occupation entity that couldn't take over 350 km of

[40:59]Haza.

[41:00]I mean, the fact that it's even coming into a confrontation with

[41:03]Iran is a literal suicide for the Israeli occupation entity, it's um

[41:11]it might have experienced a euphoria on Friday morning.

[41:14]Um but that didn't last uh very long and the more Israel

[41:20]ups its antics on Iran in terms of striking and targeting in

[41:24]the conventional sense, the more that it is uh getting hit.

[41:28]So no, I I I don't think it would escalate to what

[41:31]is recognized as a complete red line by all of the uh

[41:39]international community when right now we're at a stage yeah where America

[41:41]and the West of course they are besides the Israeli occupation entity

[41:44]but there is a big question mark here regarding the future of

[41:48]Israel even in the mind of the west and this is important

[41:52]to state um there's a big question mark surrounding the ability of

[41:56]Israel's 's um ability to support Western interests um because its failures

[42:01]have rendered it a burden.

[42:05]This very war could decide the fate of the Israeli occupation entity.

[42:08]And we know that um Israel wouldn't have even been able to

[42:11]conduct the strike on Iran unless it had the full green light

[42:17]of the American administration and Donald Trump who's at the helm of

[42:21]it.

[42:21]Um so no uh America would not authorize such a strike against

[42:24]the Islamic Republic of Iran because right now what it is interested

[42:28]in understanding is what is the true power balance on the ground

[42:33]and if that means Israel is going to fall and Israel is

[42:35]going to be rendered bankrupt then so be it.

[42:38]America just needs to know where it's standing right now.

[42:40]Um and apart from the west also you know we've been seeing

[42:45]how Iran on the international level has complete moral and political legitimacy

[42:52]uh its reaction is being seen as um you know trying to

[42:56]deter offensive aggression.

[42:58]We said that Russia and China made this clear and the most

[43:01]significant aspect of the past 20 months has been that the political

[43:07]and the moral legitimacy to strike Israel has never been greater on

[43:10]a mass level.

[43:10]The masses of the world have reached the point where they're just

[43:14]saying to Iran, just do it.

[43:15]That's the kind of motto that people have.

[43:18]Iran doesn't have to explain its position to strike.

[43:22]And there's a turning point that's occurring on the level of the

[43:25]mass populations as a result of Israel's savagery that they've witnessed these

[43:29]past 20 months.

[43:29]And of course, you have the Arab regimes that are supporting the

[43:34]Israeli occupation entities commands um and openly proclaiming that they're but they're

[43:38]not able to openly proclaim that they support Israel because that will

[43:41]cause that uproar.

[43:44]But these countries within the uh Persian Gulf are also are also

[43:47]protecting American bases.

[43:48]And you know, we've seen how they've entered into contracts worth billions

[43:53]with America.

[43:52]So what does Trump want?

[43:56]Trump wants a stable region in West Asia where he can pass

[44:00]these contracts worth of billions with the um Arab Persian Gulf countries.

[44:04]He doesn't actually want escalation.

[44:06]I know this sounds like it's counterintuitive.

[44:09]It's like why are you supporting a war?

[44:12]But it's in the same it's we should look at it in

[44:16]the same way that he approached Yemen.

[44:19]So Yemen was bombed as much as it could until America came

[44:22]to the realization that this is going the opposite way to what

[44:25]we intended.

[44:26]It took 7 weeks for Trump to wake up.

[44:29]Hold on.

[44:30]We're actually not achieving the strategic goals that we wanted to achieve

[44:32]on the ground as far as Yemen is concerned.

[44:34]If America in America's direct aggression and confrontation with uh Yemen wasn't

[44:40]able to get it on its knees, I mean, how does Israel

[44:45]stand a chance with Iran?

[44:46]And America doesn't want to jeopardize uh its interests and its assets

[44:50]uh in the region.

[44:53]So, no, that's not even something that I would put to the

[44:57]imagination.

[44:57]Well, thank you so much, Batul, for joining us today on TMJ

[45:01]Live and for sharing your expertise and insight on the ongoing situation.

[45:04]Always a pleasure.

[45:05]Thank you and for everything TMJ does.

[45:08][Music] [Music]

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